Wednesday, July 11, 2012

What to do with Josh Hamilton?

The Rangers have a few options on what to do with 31 year old Josh Hamilton between now and the end of the year when he hits the free agent market. The guy who has been a fan favorite since he arrived has had an up and down career with the Rangers. While on the field he has been very good and is having a monster year so far this year, as he leads the league in home runs and RBIs. But most of his downfall has been off the field, where he has faced a lot of injury time in the last few years and also has faced scrutiny off the field for his constant battle with drugs and alcohol. We are all human, so the second of these two do not bother me as much as a fan because the relapses are few and far between. So the question is: What should the Rangers do with their superstar outfielder?

The first option is obviously to re-sign him to a multi-year deal. How much will that cost the Rangers? Looking at Albert Pujols' contract that he signed this year for ten years at $240 million. Pujols who is also 31, is probably the best contract to look at when figuring out how much Hamilton will look for. With the year that Hamilton is having he will probably look for the same type of contract. He may give the Rangers a hometown discount since they have catered to so many of his needs the last couple of years. But the Rangers should still expect to have to pay some where between eighteen and twenty million dollars a year for seven to ten years to keep their slugger. If he continues to produce like he has this season that would be a good investment, but the Rangers have to keep his injury problems and his age in the back of their mind. At 31, his numbers will begin to decrease around 35, as most players do, even if he can stay on the field. So a seven year  front loaded contract may be a better idea so that if his numbers do decrease they will have enough to go out and get younger. Anything more I believe they have to let him walk, and go after a younger free agent such as Melky Cabrera or Michael Bourne.

The next option would be to trade for an outfielder before the trade deadline, using that great farm system to land another premium player. That way you can keep Hamilton until the end of the year to help try to get back to the World Series and you have a back-up plan if he leaves. As I said in another post, Carlos Gonzales may be this player. He is five years younger than Hamilton and has been consistently good for the Rockies over the past few years. While Gonzales would cost the Rangers probably three top prospects and maybe two guys from the current roster, he would have a field day with the right field stands and that jet stream. Plus, he can run a little too. Having him and Hamilton in the outfield and at the dish would significantly help the Rangers chances of winning a championship.

The last and least likely option would be to trade Hamilton before the deadline. It would allow them to get something in return, rather than just letting him walk in free agency. If that were the case, the Rangers may be able to get at least a top third of the rotation starter and a decent replacement for Hamilton in the outfield. But it may also significantly hurt their chances of returning to the World Series, do to the lack of his bat in the lineup. It would also hurt the Rangers' chances of re-signing if he did hit free agency in the Winter.

The Rangers and Hamilton have both said they are not in talks while the season is going on which kind of scares me, because he will probably hit free agency. If he hits free agency, his price may skyrocket with teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Dodgers lurking. At some point it will be interesting to see how this all plays out and how it affects the Rangers in years to come.


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